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May 03, 2024
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ACS 4630 - Actuarial Probability Models I3 lecture hours 0 lab hours 3 credits
Course Description
This course is the first of a sequence of two courses to prepare our students for an actuarial exam focused on using probability models in the context of short-term insurance coverages. It will provide a more in-depth study of certain topics in probability and mathematical statistics, with a focus on problems and models that are relevant to insurance products. (prereq: ACS 3540 ) (quarter system prereq: Actuarial Science program director consent)
Course Learning Outcomes
Upon successful completion of this course, the student will be able to:
- Understand and make calculations related to frequency, severity, and aggregate models
- Use frequency, severity, and aggregate models in insurance-related applications
- Estimate parameters for parametric models and construct confidence intervals for those parameters
- Use model selection tests to choose between competing models
- Understand various coverage modifications of insurance products, including deductibles, limits, and coinsurance
- Apply Bayesian, Bühlmann, and classical techniques to study credibility
Prerequisites by Topic
- Calculus
- Probability
- Statistics
Course Topics
- Severity, frequency, and aggregate models
- Parameter estimation and confidence intervals
- Bayesian estimation
- Hypothesis tests, Bayesian Information Criterion, and other model selection tests
- Insurance coverage modifications
- Classical credibility
- Bayesian credibility
- Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub credibility
Coordinator
Dr. Yvonne Yaz
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