AC 4404 - Actuarial Probability Models

• Analyze severity, frequency, and aggregate models
• Understand what probability distributions are appropriate to model different problems
• Use probability distributions to evaluate financial risk
• Understand the relationship between various probability distributions, and the effects of mixing probability distributions         
• Estimate parameters using maximum likelihood estimation and construct confidence intervals for those parameters
• Understand various coverage modifications of insurance products, including deductibles, limits, and coinsurance
• Apply Bayesian and Bühlmann techniques to study credibility
• Apply knowledge of the course topics in the context of insurance, including calculating premiums and reserves for short-term insurance products

• Calculus
• Probability
• Interest theory

• Probability distributions
• Moments and other properties of probability distributions
• Developing risk models
• Hazard rate functions
• Deductibles, limits, and coinsurance
• Inflation effects
• Value at risk and tail value at risk
• Maximum likelihood estimation
• Bayesian estimation
• Hypothesis tests, Bayesian information criterion, and other model selection tests
• Bayesian credibility
• Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub models
• Short-term insurance and reinsurance
• Premiums
• Reserves